Italy: Opinion polls suggest that the ‘Vote No’ is in the lead – Goldman Sachs

The blackout period for opinion polls around the referendum started last Friday (18 November) and the side campaigning for a rejection of the reforms (labelled ‘Vote No’) has gained more ground in recent weeks and, on the latest available count, is in the lead by a slightly larger percentage (53% to 47%) than the statistical margin of error (+/-3%), notes Francesco Garzarelli, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs.

Key Quotes

“An analysis of the opinion polls reinforces the idea that the referendum is less about the reform proposal and more about the popularity of the government. For example:

• The correlation between respondents’ political affiliation and their voting intentions remains strongly positive – an observation we made in our September note. Specifically, a large majority (close to 80%) of voters siding with the Democratic Party, which Mr Renzi leads, declare themselves in favour of the reforms in spite of some internal dissent. Meanwhile, those voters close to Mr Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – which supported the reform bill in Parliament almost to the very end of its legislative process – appear to be virtually split down the middle. Standing firmly against the reforms are mainly supporters of the two largest opposition groups, the 5 Star Movement and Northern League.
• A breakdown by geographic and demographic dimensions indicates that the ‘Vote No’ campaign has more support among young people, and/or those resident in the North Eastern and the Southern regions of the country. Both areas have been hit by the economic and banking crisis, allowing populist, anti-immigration and anti-EU formations to garner more support.
• Around a quarter of respondents who intend to cast their vote (corresponding to around 6 million people) are still undecided. Given that no quorum is required for the referendum to pass, what this group does on the day could determine the outcome.”