EUR/NOK seen at 9.20 by year-end – Danske Bank

Analyst at Danske Bank Thomas Rosenlund expects the Norwegian Krone to lose some upside momentum in the near-term.

Key Quotes

“Despite substantial oil volatility, EUR/NOK has been remarkably stable around 9.10 in November”.

“Norwegian macro data has been on the weaker side recently; yet the Oslo housing market has been an important reason for markets not pricing in a probability for December easing and in general disregarding the 40% probability of a rate cut embedded into the Norges Bank rate path”.

“For a repricing to take place, we would have to see a substantial deterioration in the Regional Network Survey on 6 December, which we don’t expect”.

“Having said this, we still look for year-end seasonality and a failed OPEC agreement to send EUR/NOK a little higher towards 9.20 over the coming month.