UK: Chancellor Hammond to play it safe with the Autumn Statement - ING

Research Team at ING, suggests that far from the massive fiscal stimulus once considered in the direct aftermath of Brexit, today’s UK Autumn Statement should more be a reality check.

Key Quotes

“The OBR will likely cut its 2017 UK GDP forecasts to 1% from 2.2% and delay the down-turn in the UK debt to GDP trajectory (in March it saw debt to GDP falling from 82.6% fiscal 16/17 to 74.7% 20/21). While Chancellor Hammond will suspend the government’s ambition to run a surplus by 2020, stimulus plans announced today look set to be minimal – e.g. low billions on infrastructure and R&D and a modest easing in tax credits. Following a short squeeze to 1.2675 post US election, we think Cable looks vulnerable again and favour a test of 1.2300 today.”