Eurozone: First survey data after the US election - BNPP

Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that on the data front, starting tomorrow we will get the first evidence of how the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency is affecting Eurozone confidence.

Key Quotes

“The week will kick off with the eurozone’s November composite PMI on Wednesday, followed by the French INSEE industry survey and the German Ifo business climate indicator on Thursday. After initial wobbles, financial markets welcomed the election of Mr Trump as US president-elect. However, the election outcome was a powerful reminder of the strength of anti-establishment sentiment and refocused market attention on political risks ahead.”

“The large rise in Italian government bond yields partly signals markets pricing in a potential negative outcome to, for example, the outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum on 4 December, in our view. Against this backdrop, we expect the eurozone composite PMI confidence indicator to have fallen slightly in November to 53.1, from 53.3 in October. Its average for Q4, however, should remain above that of Q3, signalling that eurozone GDP growth might be slightly better in Q4 compared to Q3.”