USD extends gains, more to come - BNPP

Research Team at BNP Paribas, suggests that the increased expectations for fiscal stimulus next year are supporting US rates, and growth expectations, and creating a strong backdrop for the USD.

Key Quotes

“We expect to reach our year-end USDJPY and EURUSD targets of 108 and 1.08 in the relatively near-term. We remain positioned for USD gains via a three-month EURUSD, USDJPY dual digital recommendation. The USD continued to gain ground yesterday, supported by a further increase in US two-year yields to new six-month highs and an increase in pricing for a December Fed hike to over 80%. Notably, while rising US yields have taken a toll on emerging market assets this week.”

“Ahead today, we expect preliminary Michigan sentiment data for November to show some negative impact from uncertainty over the election period. However, subsequent equity market recovery suggests this may be short-lived. Our economics team notes that the collection period for the report runs through the day after the election but the bulk of responses likely did not capture the outcome. Also note that US bond markets are closed today for Veterans Day but equity markets remain open. Canadian markets are closed for Remembrance Day.”