US: Retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment in focus - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that a recovery in motor vehicle sales and further increase in gasoline prices should help to push US retail sales higher by 0.7% m/m in September, above the market consensus for 0.6% m/m.

Key Quotes

“We expect core sales to be slightly weaker at 0.4% for ex-autos while the control group should post a 0.3% m/m advance (mkt: 0.5% m/m and 0.4% m/m, respectively).

Producer prices for September will be released simultaneously and are expected by both TD and the market to rise by 0.2% m/m for the headline index due to the impact of higher energy prices. Excluding food, energy and trade, prices should post a more subdued 0.1% increase.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment for October will be released later in the morning; both TD and the market look for a 91.8 print, up from 91.2 in the prior month.

Lastly, we look for August business inventories to post an above-consensus 0.2% m/m gain (mkt: 0.1% m/m), a slight improvement over the flat print in July.”