Canada: Expect ~C$500mn improvement in nominal trade balance – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, is forecasting ~C$500mn improvement in the Canada’s nominal trade balance in August to -C$2.0bn on the back of a 0.7% m/m increase in exports and a 0.5% m/m decline in imports.

Key Quotes

“Exports should also gain ~0.7% m/m on a volumes basis, adding on to the 3.4% gain last month, but still leaving the level well below the January peak. Non-energy export volumes were down 2.4% y/y in July, but this would move into (small) positive territory even with flat non-energy export volumes, given an easier comparable in August. The BoC has been more cautious on their outlook for the export sector lately, given domestic and global structural trends and weaker performance.”