US: ISM Non-Manufacturing, trade deficit and ADP employment in focus - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that the US ISM Non-Manufacturing is expected to post a healthy rebound in September, with the consensus calling for an increase from 51.4 to 53.0, slightly below TD’s more bullish forecast for 53.2.

Key Quotes

“The international trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly due to the improvements in last week’s goods trade balance while the services surplus is forecast to improve marginally. TD looks for the overall trade deficit to narrow to $39.3bn, roughly in line with the market consensus of $39.2bn.

ADP employment is forecast by TD to rise by 156k in September, below the consensus for 165k. We would caution against getting to excited by a strong print, as ADP employment tends to outperform nonfarm payrolls by a large margin for the month of September.

Lastly, factory orders are expected to edge lower due to an anticipated decline in nondurable orders; TD looks for a below-consensus –0.3% m/m print (market: -0.2% m/m).”