US: Long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will start today – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will start today and last until Saturday, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen due to speak tomorrow.

Key Quotes

“The headline this year is 'Designing resilient monetary policy frameworks for the future'. Focus has turned to the level of the natural real interest rate and the possibility of a higher inflation target to increase the distance to the lower bound of the nominal interest rate. Hence, the discussions at Jackson Hole could reveal some of the views of FOMC members on these topics.

But, of course, the speeches will be scrutinised for any clues on monetary policy here and now and whether the Fed has plans to hike rates this year or not.

Regarding data releases, preliminary durable goods orders for July are due out today. Investments have been a major drag on US GDP growth in 2016. Core capital goods (mainly investment goods) have decreased since mid-2014 but have showed signs of bottoming in recent months. Hence, it will be interesting to see whether we have actually reached the bottom or whether we need to see a further downward correction in investments.

European PMIs have turned out to be resilient to Brexit. Today, it is time for the German ifo. We estimate that the expectations part released today will be unchanged or even rise slightly.”

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