Preliminary PMIs in Europe and US with focus on the UK PMI – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that today, preliminary PMIs for July are due for release in Europe and the US and in particular, focus will be on the PMI flash estimates for the UK, which Markit Economics are doing as a one-off due to Brexit.

Key Quotes

“The UK PMIs will be some of the first and most important post-Brexit data releases, which could potentially weigh significantly on the BoE's monetary policy decision on 4 August. The consensus is that the UK PMIs will fall below 50 across sectors, suggesting that the economy is contracting broadly. If so, it supports our view that the UK economy will fall into recession in the short run due to the Brexit uncertainties.

Also, the European PMIs will attract attention as they will give us more information about the Brexit impact on the rest of Europe.”