BoC Preview: no change and a focus on projections - Rabobank

Analysts at Bank of Canada offered a preview of the BoC coming up in the US session today.

Key Quotes:

• "We, in line with the Bloomberg consensus, fully expect no-change to the 0.50% Canadian policy rate when the latest decision is announced at the Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting on Wednesday 13th July. Of the 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, all 27 expect no-change while the front-end of the curve is pricing in around a 7.5% chance of a 25bp cut.
• The Bank of Canada last altered the policy rate back in July of last year with a 25bp cut that followed the 25bp cut seen in January 2015; these two moves partly unwound the 75bp of tightening in 2010 which raised the policy rate off of the 0.25% historical low.
• Looking forward, we expect the BoC to leave rates on hold at 0.50% until at least 2017 H2.
• The BoC will also release its latest Monetary Policy Report in tandem with the decision that will outline the Bank’s new base-case projections for inflation and growth. We expect growth forecasts to be revised slightly lower."