27 Apr 2016
And something from the Atlanta Fed - Rabobank
Analysts at Rabobank noted that as we are heading for another weak Q1 GDP growth figure, today’s decision by the FOMC to keep rates unchanged was widely expected.
Key Quotes:
After today’s reduction in the trade deficit between February and March, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for the contribution of net exports to Q1 GDP growth has been revised upward to -0.45 percentage points from -0.68% percentage points.
"Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed nowcast for Q1 GDP growth has been revised upward to 0.6% from 0.4%."
"Tomorrow the advance estimate for Q1 GDP growth will be published by the BEA.
While this is likely to be a weak figure, we would like to point out that the true state of the economy in Q1 may be a little better – but still not good – than the official figure will show.
Our econometric analysis shows that there is still substantial residual seasonality in the GDP data published by the BEA, with Q1 growth systematically below the other quarters. But more on this tomorrow."
Key Quotes:
After today’s reduction in the trade deficit between February and March, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast for the contribution of net exports to Q1 GDP growth has been revised upward to -0.45 percentage points from -0.68% percentage points.
"Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed nowcast for Q1 GDP growth has been revised upward to 0.6% from 0.4%."
"Tomorrow the advance estimate for Q1 GDP growth will be published by the BEA.
While this is likely to be a weak figure, we would like to point out that the true state of the economy in Q1 may be a little better – but still not good – than the official figure will show.
Our econometric analysis shows that there is still substantial residual seasonality in the GDP data published by the BEA, with Q1 growth systematically below the other quarters. But more on this tomorrow."