US: Core CPI inflation is expected to slow – Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that as gasoline prices bottomed out in February, we expect headline CPI to increase by 0.23% m-o-m (1.0% y-o-y) in March (Consensus: +0.2% m-o-m, +1.1% y-o-y).

Key Quotes

“However, due to the likely negative payback from increases in some categories of CPI in the past two months, we think that core CPI inflation probably decelerated to 0.1% (0.140%) m-o-m following an advance of 0.3% (0.283%) in February (Consensus:+0.2%). Our forecast would put the y-o-y core CPI inflation at 2.3%, matching the consensus forecast.

Core CPI: We are expecting a decline of 0.15% m-o-m in the core goods CPI in March. On the service side, medical care service prices posted solid 0.5% gains in January and February. However, this metric is very volatile, and we expect to see some mean-reversion. We forecast a slowdown in medical care service inflation to 0.15% m-o-m in March. Elsewhere, airline fares, another volatile component, is expected to decline slightly. Against this backdrop, we are expecting a 0.14% increase in core CPI in March, down from 0.283% in February.”