BoE: Holding its breath - Rabobank

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, notes that the relevance of Bank of England policy meetings for asset prices has paled into insignificance recently in comparison to those of the Federal Reserve, ECB and BoJ.

Key Quotes

“While there has been a large downwards move in the value of sterling this year mostly on the back of Brexit risk, it is unclear to what extent this will influence BoE policy. It is possible that the inflationary implications of a weaker pound may be offset by downside risks to growth stemming from reduced investment inflows if the UK were to leave the EU.

Next month’s publication of the Quarterly Inflation Report will provide updated projections on inflation which may provide some insight to how the weaker position of the pound could impact policy going forward.

We would expect that the Bank will err on the side of caution and expect steady rates at least until February 2017. On the back of Brexit fears, the influence of the broad improvement in risk appetite noted from mid-February failed to have a sustained impact on UK money market rates through March. The markets see a greater probability of a rate cut at least through until the middle of next year.”