28 Mar 2016
USD/JPY hunting down Feb highs on 115.0 handle
USD/JPY bulls have fought back in a strong rally, away from the March 17 multi-year low. We are now in positive territory, trading in the upper end of its range from mid-February.
For the week ahead, we look to the US for a catalyst in Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club and US jobs data. In Japan, on a usual busy end of month schedule of data, the real risk event comes in the Japanese Tanken survey as a forward indicator that the BoJ will look to. "Here the news will not be very favorable," explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Not only did sentiment among large and small business likely deteriorate, but expectations will warn that the June survey also will probably weaken. Capex is expected to be scaled back. The Reuters survey produced a median expectation for capex to rise 10.1% rather than 10.8%. The Bloomberg survey respondents expect a larger pullback to 9.4%. "
USD/JPY levels
"USD/JPY won’t run away on the downside in part because the technical levels that were resistance in the USD bull run are now acting as downside brakes," argued analysts at Deutsche Bank.
On the flip side, Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT FX Strategist at Scotiabank suggested that both the MACD and RSI are bullish, and USD/JPY has broken above both its short-term MA’s. "The DMI’s appear set to confirm the shift in the balance of risk and we look to gains toward the 50 day MA at 114.69."
For the week ahead, we look to the US for a catalyst in Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club and US jobs data. In Japan, on a usual busy end of month schedule of data, the real risk event comes in the Japanese Tanken survey as a forward indicator that the BoJ will look to. "Here the news will not be very favorable," explained analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. "Not only did sentiment among large and small business likely deteriorate, but expectations will warn that the June survey also will probably weaken. Capex is expected to be scaled back. The Reuters survey produced a median expectation for capex to rise 10.1% rather than 10.8%. The Bloomberg survey respondents expect a larger pullback to 9.4%. "
USD/JPY levels
"USD/JPY won’t run away on the downside in part because the technical levels that were resistance in the USD bull run are now acting as downside brakes," argued analysts at Deutsche Bank.
On the flip side, Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT FX Strategist at Scotiabank suggested that both the MACD and RSI are bullish, and USD/JPY has broken above both its short-term MA’s. "The DMI’s appear set to confirm the shift in the balance of risk and we look to gains toward the 50 day MA at 114.69."