28 Mar 2016
EUR firm against most G10 rivals - TDS
Research Team at TDS, suggests that with inflation forecasted near 0% in 2016, the ECB delivered big in March.
Key Quotes
“The proactive ECB masks a relatively healthy underlying economy: it’s slack that’s keeping inflation low, but growth is well above trend and working this slack off. The unemployment rate is coming down quickly, and the ECB’s inflation forecast is likely too low, which should reinforce our view that the ECB will now remain on hold.
The ECB provides some offset to the Fed's dovish leanings but with policymakers now on the sidelines this may be less of a factor. The region's massive BoP inflows help keep the EUR firm against most G10 rivals. Brexit is also a risk for the EUR, however, so we expect 2-way risks to prevail overall.”
Key Quotes
“The proactive ECB masks a relatively healthy underlying economy: it’s slack that’s keeping inflation low, but growth is well above trend and working this slack off. The unemployment rate is coming down quickly, and the ECB’s inflation forecast is likely too low, which should reinforce our view that the ECB will now remain on hold.
The ECB provides some offset to the Fed's dovish leanings but with policymakers now on the sidelines this may be less of a factor. The region's massive BoP inflows help keep the EUR firm against most G10 rivals. Brexit is also a risk for the EUR, however, so we expect 2-way risks to prevail overall.”