11 Mar 2016
Eurozone: BoE and the SNB meet next week - Westpac
Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that there’s very little of interest in the Eurozone calendars next week, the final Feb CPI and region-wide IP the main releases while we have the BoE and the SNB meet with the latter likely to cut rates to match the ECB.
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD is materially overvalued against 2yr Bund-Tsy spreads, the latter suggesting 1.05/06 is more “reasonable”. That said a run at 1.12 likely if Draghi does not leapfrog expectations, as seems likely. Any squeeze though should lack legs, the FOMC a week later likely to sound more hawkish by noting that future meetings are live and the risks are balanced. EUR/USD a sell into 1.12.
The recent GBP/USD bounce from 1.3850 looks like short covering more than anything else, the EU referendum still more than three months away and a strong dovish BoE tilt encouraging markets to ignore constructive data sets and instead lean in favour of pricing modest chances of BoE rate cuts before year’s end.
GBP a strong sell on strength into 1.45, if seen. Suspect it won’t be long before USD/CHF scales parity again, notably lower global risk premia and pressure on the SNB to at least match the ECB when they next meet 17 March at least two reasons to fade USD/CHF weakness.”
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD is materially overvalued against 2yr Bund-Tsy spreads, the latter suggesting 1.05/06 is more “reasonable”. That said a run at 1.12 likely if Draghi does not leapfrog expectations, as seems likely. Any squeeze though should lack legs, the FOMC a week later likely to sound more hawkish by noting that future meetings are live and the risks are balanced. EUR/USD a sell into 1.12.
The recent GBP/USD bounce from 1.3850 looks like short covering more than anything else, the EU referendum still more than three months away and a strong dovish BoE tilt encouraging markets to ignore constructive data sets and instead lean in favour of pricing modest chances of BoE rate cuts before year’s end.
GBP a strong sell on strength into 1.45, if seen. Suspect it won’t be long before USD/CHF scales parity again, notably lower global risk premia and pressure on the SNB to at least match the ECB when they next meet 17 March at least two reasons to fade USD/CHF weakness.”