10 Mar 2016
ECB: Expect a 20bp deposit rate cut and a one-year extension of the TLTRO - SocGen
Alvin T. Tan, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the key G10 event today is the ECB policy meeting.
Key Quotes
“SG economics is expecting a 20bp deposit rate cut and a one-year extension of the TLTRO programme, but no increase in the pace of asset purchases. The market consensus is for a 10bp rate cut and a rise in asset purchases from the current €60bn per month rate.
All in all, there is wide expectation of further ECB easing today, so it could be difficult for the ECB to awe markets. Beyond the specifics of what rabbit Draghi might pull out of the bag today, escalating unconventional ECB policies have not been able to drive the trade weighted euro lower durably over the past year.”
Key Quotes
“SG economics is expecting a 20bp deposit rate cut and a one-year extension of the TLTRO programme, but no increase in the pace of asset purchases. The market consensus is for a 10bp rate cut and a rise in asset purchases from the current €60bn per month rate.
All in all, there is wide expectation of further ECB easing today, so it could be difficult for the ECB to awe markets. Beyond the specifics of what rabbit Draghi might pull out of the bag today, escalating unconventional ECB policies have not been able to drive the trade weighted euro lower durably over the past year.”