4 Mar 2016
US nonfarm payrolls likely to print 205k today - Nomura
Research Team at Nomura, notes that the US nonfarm payrolls added a net new 151k jobs in January, a step down from the Q4 average of 279k workers per month but is consistent with the labor market growing near its underlying trend.
Key Quotes
“In addition, we think some of the slowdown in payroll growth was due to temporary factors. Incoming data suggest that we should see stronger job growth in February. For example, initial jobless claims have moved lower this month.
We forecast that private payrolls added a net new 205k workers, with no increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 205k jobs. We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 5k in February, as regional manufacturing surveys suggest that activity in the sector remained sluggish on the month.
We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Last, we expect average hourly earnings to grow by only +0.20% m-o-m (+2.6% y-o-y), paring back from strong gains in the prior month, and owing to unfavorable effects from a calendar quirk.”
Key Quotes
“In addition, we think some of the slowdown in payroll growth was due to temporary factors. Incoming data suggest that we should see stronger job growth in February. For example, initial jobless claims have moved lower this month.
We forecast that private payrolls added a net new 205k workers, with no increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 205k jobs. We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 5k in February, as regional manufacturing surveys suggest that activity in the sector remained sluggish on the month.
We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Last, we expect average hourly earnings to grow by only +0.20% m-o-m (+2.6% y-o-y), paring back from strong gains in the prior month, and owing to unfavorable effects from a calendar quirk.”