18 Feb 2016
AUD: Softer numbers for Australian employment, but still overstated – HSBC
Research Team at HSBC, notes that the Australian employment fell by -8k in January (market expected +13k, HSBC had 0k), with the unemployment rate ticking back up to 6.0% (market expected 5.8%, HSBC 5.9%).
Key Quotes
“After very strong job reports in October and November, it is not surprising to see some ‘payback’. The previous strength in the official employment numbers seemed out of line with other labour market indicators, which point to a more modest improvement in conditions. However, even after a couple of weaker months, annual employment growth is running at 2.6%, which still looks a little overstated, in our view.
The unemployment rate has been fluctuating around 6.0% for the past two years, a trend that we expect to continue over 2016. Spare capacity in the labour market is set to continue to weigh on domestic inflation, leaving the RBA will scope to cut further.”
Key Quotes
“After very strong job reports in October and November, it is not surprising to see some ‘payback’. The previous strength in the official employment numbers seemed out of line with other labour market indicators, which point to a more modest improvement in conditions. However, even after a couple of weaker months, annual employment growth is running at 2.6%, which still looks a little overstated, in our view.
The unemployment rate has been fluctuating around 6.0% for the past two years, a trend that we expect to continue over 2016. Spare capacity in the labour market is set to continue to weigh on domestic inflation, leaving the RBA will scope to cut further.”