17 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: eyes on FOMC – Danske Bank and UOB
EUR/USD has returned to the negative territory near 1.1130, trading on a softer footing ahead of the FOMC minutes due later in the NA session.
Arne Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, argued “According to our models this suggests that the greenback’s sensitivity to higher short-term US rates has increased. Should tonight’s minutes confirm that the FOMC is far more divided than appeared in December, markets should deem the latest USD weakening as fair. For EUR/USD, the effect of a stronger USD would be partially countered by a stronger EUR, via the single currency’s status as a preferred funding currency”.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group suggested “In line with expectations, EUR extended its weakness but the low of 1.1120 did not reach the 1.1100 target. The undertone is still weak and from here, the risk is still tilted towards another leg lower to 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1180 but only a move above 1.1220 would indicate that a shortterm low is in place. There is no change to the neutral view. The current movement is viewed as a corrective pull-back which could extend lower to 1.1060”.
Arne Rasmussen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, argued “According to our models this suggests that the greenback’s sensitivity to higher short-term US rates has increased. Should tonight’s minutes confirm that the FOMC is far more divided than appeared in December, markets should deem the latest USD weakening as fair. For EUR/USD, the effect of a stronger USD would be partially countered by a stronger EUR, via the single currency’s status as a preferred funding currency”.
In addition, the research team at UOB Group suggested “In line with expectations, EUR extended its weakness but the low of 1.1120 did not reach the 1.1100 target. The undertone is still weak and from here, the risk is still tilted towards another leg lower to 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1180 but only a move above 1.1220 would indicate that a shortterm low is in place. There is no change to the neutral view. The current movement is viewed as a corrective pull-back which could extend lower to 1.1060”.