22 Jan 2016
USD/CNH neutral in the short-term – UOB
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to the research team at UOB Group, the pair’s outlook remains on the neutral side for the time being.
Key Quotes
“Do note that we see the possibility of a 50 bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut as early as this weekend”.
“Given downside risks to growth, we are factoring in 400 bps cut in the RRR this year (100 bps cut per quarter)”.
“Nonetheless, PBoC’s liquidity injection of more than CNY600 bn (US$91.22 bn) to help ease a liquidity squeeze before the Lunar New Year in early February may reduce the immediate need for the RRR cut. PBoC last changed policy on 23 Oct 2015, the sixth interest-rate cut in a year (depo rate 1.50%; lending 4.35%), and the fourth RRR cut last year (to 17.5% at end-2015)”.
“There is no not much to add as the recent high volatility continues to ease (which reinforces our current neutral view). In the next 1 week or so, we expect USD to trade between 6.5700 and 6.6300”.
Key Quotes
“Do note that we see the possibility of a 50 bps reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut as early as this weekend”.
“Given downside risks to growth, we are factoring in 400 bps cut in the RRR this year (100 bps cut per quarter)”.
“Nonetheless, PBoC’s liquidity injection of more than CNY600 bn (US$91.22 bn) to help ease a liquidity squeeze before the Lunar New Year in early February may reduce the immediate need for the RRR cut. PBoC last changed policy on 23 Oct 2015, the sixth interest-rate cut in a year (depo rate 1.50%; lending 4.35%), and the fourth RRR cut last year (to 17.5% at end-2015)”.
“There is no not much to add as the recent high volatility continues to ease (which reinforces our current neutral view). In the next 1 week or so, we expect USD to trade between 6.5700 and 6.6300”.