20 Jan 2016
CAD: BOC set to act again - MUFG
FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, notes that the OIS pricing in Canada suggests a 0.25-point cut is currently about 60% priced which has been fuelled this month by the continued slide in crude oil prices and some mixed economic data.
Key Quotes
“One key disappointing report, pointing to further easing was the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business survey which revealed grim business sentiment – indeed the worst since Q1 2009 at the depths of the Great Financial crisis. The Loan Officer Survey also pointed to tightening lending conditions. Retail sales excluding autos were also weaker than expected in October. We now think it is more likely that the BOC will act today given the economic data flow, the renewed downturn in crude oil prices and general increased uncertainties globally.
While a move today would not be hugely surprising, it would clearly prompt renewed appetite for Canadian dollar selling. A push to 1.5000 over the coming weeks on the back of BOC action would seem to us as the very least we should expect. Rhetoric suggesting further easing would fuel expectations of QE being implemented which would mean even higher USD/CAD levels could be achievable.”
Key Quotes
“One key disappointing report, pointing to further easing was the Bank of Canada’s quarterly business survey which revealed grim business sentiment – indeed the worst since Q1 2009 at the depths of the Great Financial crisis. The Loan Officer Survey also pointed to tightening lending conditions. Retail sales excluding autos were also weaker than expected in October. We now think it is more likely that the BOC will act today given the economic data flow, the renewed downturn in crude oil prices and general increased uncertainties globally.
While a move today would not be hugely surprising, it would clearly prompt renewed appetite for Canadian dollar selling. A push to 1.5000 over the coming weeks on the back of BOC action would seem to us as the very least we should expect. Rhetoric suggesting further easing would fuel expectations of QE being implemented which would mean even higher USD/CAD levels could be achievable.”