20 Jan 2016
US CPI: Actual inflation in focus today - MUFG
FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that with the FOMC mentioning in its statement that it wants to see “actual inflation” corroborating the view that inflation will gradually move toward the 2.0% target, today’s CPI report for December takes on extra importance.
Key Quotes
“One reason we decided on March for the next rate increase from the FOMC was our view that “actual inflation” would indeed corroborate the FOMC view and that should be evident today with underlying price pressures expected to remain firm.
Services inflation, excluding energy, is currently at 2.9% after six consecutive increases suggesting a real trend. The annual core CPI rate is expected to increase to 2.1% today, which would be the highest level since July 2012.
We will also look to see what has happened to medical care inflation. This sector has jumped notably but the jump has yet to show up in the core PCE inflation measure where the weighting is much larger. Assuming that transpires, the core PCE inflation rate is set to accelerate too.”
Key Quotes
“One reason we decided on March for the next rate increase from the FOMC was our view that “actual inflation” would indeed corroborate the FOMC view and that should be evident today with underlying price pressures expected to remain firm.
Services inflation, excluding energy, is currently at 2.9% after six consecutive increases suggesting a real trend. The annual core CPI rate is expected to increase to 2.1% today, which would be the highest level since July 2012.
We will also look to see what has happened to medical care inflation. This sector has jumped notably but the jump has yet to show up in the core PCE inflation measure where the weighting is much larger. Assuming that transpires, the core PCE inflation rate is set to accelerate too.”