19 Jan 2016
GBP/USD: consolidation emerges near-term – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Ned Rumpeltin, Strategist at TD Securities, the outlook for the sterling remains negative, although some consolidation is expected in the short-term.
Key Quotes
“We have downgraded our sterling outlook as the GBP’s fundamental backdrop has deteriorated. Growth has slowed and we have recently pushed back our call for the first BoE rate hike to November”.
“This comes amid easing wage and other cost pressures alongside a wider-than-expected output gap arising in recent months. At the same time, we have noticed a tangible increase in ‘Brexit’ concerns among investors and media outlets since the start of the year”.
“The key focus this week is Wednesday’s labour market data. UK employment remains healthy but wage growth is decelerating. This feeds directly into our expectation for the BoE to remain on hold for now as wage inflation is now a major policy focus”.
“Together with our expectations for still soft inflation (Tuesday) and Retail Sales (Friday) reports, we expect the GBP to remain under broad-based pressure. That said, GBPUSD has weakened sharply and the daily RSI is now deep in ‘oversold’ territory. Our core scenario calls for spot to challenge the 2010 lows at 1.4239. Given the speed of the decline last week, however, some consolidation is due”.
Key Quotes
“We have downgraded our sterling outlook as the GBP’s fundamental backdrop has deteriorated. Growth has slowed and we have recently pushed back our call for the first BoE rate hike to November”.
“This comes amid easing wage and other cost pressures alongside a wider-than-expected output gap arising in recent months. At the same time, we have noticed a tangible increase in ‘Brexit’ concerns among investors and media outlets since the start of the year”.
“The key focus this week is Wednesday’s labour market data. UK employment remains healthy but wage growth is decelerating. This feeds directly into our expectation for the BoE to remain on hold for now as wage inflation is now a major policy focus”.
“Together with our expectations for still soft inflation (Tuesday) and Retail Sales (Friday) reports, we expect the GBP to remain under broad-based pressure. That said, GBPUSD has weakened sharply and the daily RSI is now deep in ‘oversold’ territory. Our core scenario calls for spot to challenge the 2010 lows at 1.4239. Given the speed of the decline last week, however, some consolidation is due”.