19 Jan 2016
GBP oversold, but data unlikely to offer much help this week - BNPP
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, expects UK CPI to remain at a paltry 0.1% y/y at today’s print.
Key Quotes
“UK data takes prominence in the data calendar this week, but our economists’ forecasts don’t imply a significant data boost for the sterling however, with unemployment rate steady at 5.2% on Wednesday and retail sales falling by 0.5% on Thursday.
This lacklustre data comes against a backdrop of GBP positioning reaching its largest short since 2008 with a score of -34 (out of +/-50; see here). On the central bank front, MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe commented overnight he is patient on the timing of the first BoE rate hike, while BoE Governor Carney speaks in London at 12:00 GMT today.
We think EURGBP is at overbought levels and long GBPCHF remains one of our key trade ideas for 2016 but we are wary of initiating new GBP recommendations until global sentiment improves.”
Key Quotes
“UK data takes prominence in the data calendar this week, but our economists’ forecasts don’t imply a significant data boost for the sterling however, with unemployment rate steady at 5.2% on Wednesday and retail sales falling by 0.5% on Thursday.
This lacklustre data comes against a backdrop of GBP positioning reaching its largest short since 2008 with a score of -34 (out of +/-50; see here). On the central bank front, MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe commented overnight he is patient on the timing of the first BoE rate hike, while BoE Governor Carney speaks in London at 12:00 GMT today.
We think EURGBP is at overbought levels and long GBPCHF remains one of our key trade ideas for 2016 but we are wary of initiating new GBP recommendations until global sentiment improves.”