16 Dec 2015
FOMC: Big day has finally arrived - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at ING, suggests that the big day has finally arrived and markets are looking for FOMC Chair Yellen to market today’s 25bp hike in the Fed Funds target range as ‘good news’ – the economy and the financial system being in a sufficiently good place to tolerate higher rates.
Key Quotes
“Today should also see US Congress pass a $1.1trn 2016 omnibus spending bill, removing risk of fiscal impasse next year and perhaps paving the way for House Speaker Paul Ryan to push for comprehensive tax reform in 2017.”
“Long dollar positions look crowded and there is always the risk that having bought the dollar on the rumour of a Fed hike, the market now sells it on the fact. However, our rates team believe the net effect today will be higher swap rates at the short-end of the curve, which can probably see the dollar perform well against core low yielders such as EUR, JPY and CHF. Favour DXY back to 99. Biggest risk probably emerges if FOMC statement contains reference to dollar strength delaying inflation’s return to target.”
Key Quotes
“Today should also see US Congress pass a $1.1trn 2016 omnibus spending bill, removing risk of fiscal impasse next year and perhaps paving the way for House Speaker Paul Ryan to push for comprehensive tax reform in 2017.”
“Long dollar positions look crowded and there is always the risk that having bought the dollar on the rumour of a Fed hike, the market now sells it on the fact. However, our rates team believe the net effect today will be higher swap rates at the short-end of the curve, which can probably see the dollar perform well against core low yielders such as EUR, JPY and CHF. Favour DXY back to 99. Biggest risk probably emerges if FOMC statement contains reference to dollar strength delaying inflation’s return to target.”