28 Oct 2013
Flash: Highlights from the latest IMM futures positioning - Scotia Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Oct 1 & were released Friday Oct 25. The FX Strtegy Team at Scotia Bank summarizes the report.
Key Quotes
"The bearish shift against the USD that had been observed toward the end of September continued into the start of the US government shutdown. Investors favored all of the major currencies, as those held short against the USD saw the greatest w/w swings while the remaining majors already held net long also saw a modest build."
"However, specific events impacted AUD—given the October 1st RBA meeting, and JPY—given the nascent rise in risk aversion as a result of the increase in political rhetoric related to the US debt ceiling."
"The CAD net short position narrowed $0.5bn to flat, in a move primarily driven by a rise in longs as shorts were held flat. Overall, the steady rise in longs since its June lows is suggestive of a slow build in confidence."
"For AUD, investors appeared to have continued to pare back FX risk, given the decline in both long and short positions following the RBA meeting and statement."
"While JPY remained the largest held net short, with a -$10.5bn position, an escalation in politically-charged rhetoric relating to
the US debt ceiling was a likely culprit in providing a $1.2bn narrowing that was completely driven by short covering."
"The EUR net long position rose $0.5bn to $11.5bn, though details suggest a lack of risk appetite as both longs and shorts fell, with the latter exceeding the former."
Key Quotes
"The bearish shift against the USD that had been observed toward the end of September continued into the start of the US government shutdown. Investors favored all of the major currencies, as those held short against the USD saw the greatest w/w swings while the remaining majors already held net long also saw a modest build."
"However, specific events impacted AUD—given the October 1st RBA meeting, and JPY—given the nascent rise in risk aversion as a result of the increase in political rhetoric related to the US debt ceiling."
"The CAD net short position narrowed $0.5bn to flat, in a move primarily driven by a rise in longs as shorts were held flat. Overall, the steady rise in longs since its June lows is suggestive of a slow build in confidence."
"For AUD, investors appeared to have continued to pare back FX risk, given the decline in both long and short positions following the RBA meeting and statement."
"While JPY remained the largest held net short, with a -$10.5bn position, an escalation in politically-charged rhetoric relating to
the US debt ceiling was a likely culprit in providing a $1.2bn narrowing that was completely driven by short covering."
"The EUR net long position rose $0.5bn to $11.5bn, though details suggest a lack of risk appetite as both longs and shorts fell, with the latter exceeding the former."