10 Oct 2013
Flash: Upside risks for AUD/USD ahead of Australian jobs - RBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Unless the Australian jobs data comes significantly weaker than expected, or in deed stronger than expected, there appears upside potential for the AUD/USD in Asia, according to Greg Gibbs, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, a point of view which differs from an earlier publication by Westpac's FX Strategist Sean Callow.
Key Quotes by Gibbs
"Recent business surveys suggest the growth momentum will pick up and the RBA is firmly on the sidelines. With the Fed likely to pursue a slower retreat from QE under Yellen and fiscal policy and debate in the US likely to dampen economic confidence for some months, yields in the US are likely to remain low and the USD soft."
"The same is true for AUD/NZD. As the Australian economic data has recently strengthened it has cooled in New Zealand, albeit from a strong rate of growth. The RBNZ may become the first advanced central bank to hike next year, but they will continue to give the macro-prudential LVR restrictions time to work and hikes have been built in to a significant extent. The AUD/NZD yield spread suggests upside risk to the cross."
Key Quotes by Gibbs
"Recent business surveys suggest the growth momentum will pick up and the RBA is firmly on the sidelines. With the Fed likely to pursue a slower retreat from QE under Yellen and fiscal policy and debate in the US likely to dampen economic confidence for some months, yields in the US are likely to remain low and the USD soft."
"The same is true for AUD/NZD. As the Australian economic data has recently strengthened it has cooled in New Zealand, albeit from a strong rate of growth. The RBNZ may become the first advanced central bank to hike next year, but they will continue to give the macro-prudential LVR restrictions time to work and hikes have been built in to a significant extent. The AUD/NZD yield spread suggests upside risk to the cross."