6 Sep 2013
Johnny Anonymous tells us what lies ahead for the markets after the weekend
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - We tapped into a new resource here at FX Street – a respected market technician and analyst with a preference for looking a couple of steps out while respecting the short-term action in the markets. What does this expert have to say about the markets’ future?
What’s next is one thing. What happens afterwards is more important.
“What’s next for the markets?” is a question posed to experts multiple times per day every day. The short-term or “next step” is usually easy enough for experts to address – with either a real, well-thought-out answer or something more canned. To address that question here today, we pulled our new, soon-to-be famous (or infamous) technician, Johnny Anonymous (used so that he would be more willing to give direct and non-hedged answers), away from his trusty computer screens. Here’s what he said about the immediate future:
• S&P futures are at 1,652…their technical target range is 1,686 – 1,690.
• The 10-year Treasury Note yield is 2.979%....the upside projected target range is 3.019% - 3.021%.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 82.56…the upside target is 82.79.
• The EUR/USD is at 1.3122…the target is 1.3068.
• The AUD/USD is at 0.9128…the upside target is 0.9264.
• The Yen is anybody’s guess, but gun to head he’s betting a Syria-induced pop will occur in the coming days.
• Gold is trading at 1,370.50…the target is 1,351.60 in the best case and 1,315 – 1,330 in the expected, more bearish case.
Johnny A. makes a point of noting that those are not big moves and that many of those moves are close to finishing up. He notes that a strong / stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll number later this morning might allow for most of those targets to be hit today or early next week.
Mr. Anonymous says that what happens after these moves are over in the coming days seems to be a more important issue to address. When pressed for his opinion on what lies ahead for us beyond these small, short-term moves, he gave us these fairly interesting prognostications:
• The S&P futures will dive back down to around 1,610 – 1,611. From there, he’s looking for a rally that may last into 2014 that will take the indices to new highs.
• The 10-year Treasury yield will drift back down to the 2.5% - 2.7% range, bottom there, and then rip to new short-term highs.
• The DXY will likely make it back down to the 81.83 – 82.05 range as rates take their tumble. After that, he’s looking for upside to the 85 area.
• The EUR/USD will bounce back up to the 1.3200 – 1.3221 range – which is hardly a world-beating rally, he notes. After that, he’s looking for a continuation of the recent downtrend with an eventual target of 1.24 – 1.25.
• The AUD/USD will likely resume its bearish trend and trade down to the 0.8150 area.
• The Yen, after whatever Syrian-induced pop occurs, will likely resume a downward path – but this is the lowest conviction call he has right now.
• Finally, gold will bounce some as the DXY and EUR/USD correct. Then, he’s expecting a move in gold down to new lows below 1,179.
What fundamental / economic / geo-political news will bring about such technical moves?
• Continued moderate growth in the U.S. – temporarily interrupted by the Syrian crisis
• A massive reality check in China and Australia – meaning things are not as good over there as China is saying and that Australia is hoping.
• Some kind of disruptive news in Europe that will shake investors’ confidence – likely either a resumption of systemic issues or perhaps uncertainty around Germany’s leadership.
• Japan simply continuing to flounder – only seeing strength in the Yen when the “safety trade” is en vogue.
That’s about all our new friend was willing to divulge in terms of predictions. However, he did offer up some advice – don’t be a slave to headlines being manufactured by the powers that be globally and remain flexible at all times – meaning you need to be willing to admit you’re wrong quickly.
What’s next is one thing. What happens afterwards is more important.
“What’s next for the markets?” is a question posed to experts multiple times per day every day. The short-term or “next step” is usually easy enough for experts to address – with either a real, well-thought-out answer or something more canned. To address that question here today, we pulled our new, soon-to-be famous (or infamous) technician, Johnny Anonymous (used so that he would be more willing to give direct and non-hedged answers), away from his trusty computer screens. Here’s what he said about the immediate future:
• S&P futures are at 1,652…their technical target range is 1,686 – 1,690.
• The 10-year Treasury Note yield is 2.979%....the upside projected target range is 3.019% - 3.021%.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at 82.56…the upside target is 82.79.
• The EUR/USD is at 1.3122…the target is 1.3068.
• The AUD/USD is at 0.9128…the upside target is 0.9264.
• The Yen is anybody’s guess, but gun to head he’s betting a Syria-induced pop will occur in the coming days.
• Gold is trading at 1,370.50…the target is 1,351.60 in the best case and 1,315 – 1,330 in the expected, more bearish case.
Johnny A. makes a point of noting that those are not big moves and that many of those moves are close to finishing up. He notes that a strong / stronger-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll number later this morning might allow for most of those targets to be hit today or early next week.
Mr. Anonymous says that what happens after these moves are over in the coming days seems to be a more important issue to address. When pressed for his opinion on what lies ahead for us beyond these small, short-term moves, he gave us these fairly interesting prognostications:
• The S&P futures will dive back down to around 1,610 – 1,611. From there, he’s looking for a rally that may last into 2014 that will take the indices to new highs.
• The 10-year Treasury yield will drift back down to the 2.5% - 2.7% range, bottom there, and then rip to new short-term highs.
• The DXY will likely make it back down to the 81.83 – 82.05 range as rates take their tumble. After that, he’s looking for upside to the 85 area.
• The EUR/USD will bounce back up to the 1.3200 – 1.3221 range – which is hardly a world-beating rally, he notes. After that, he’s looking for a continuation of the recent downtrend with an eventual target of 1.24 – 1.25.
• The AUD/USD will likely resume its bearish trend and trade down to the 0.8150 area.
• The Yen, after whatever Syrian-induced pop occurs, will likely resume a downward path – but this is the lowest conviction call he has right now.
• Finally, gold will bounce some as the DXY and EUR/USD correct. Then, he’s expecting a move in gold down to new lows below 1,179.
What fundamental / economic / geo-political news will bring about such technical moves?
• Continued moderate growth in the U.S. – temporarily interrupted by the Syrian crisis
• A massive reality check in China and Australia – meaning things are not as good over there as China is saying and that Australia is hoping.
• Some kind of disruptive news in Europe that will shake investors’ confidence – likely either a resumption of systemic issues or perhaps uncertainty around Germany’s leadership.
• Japan simply continuing to flounder – only seeing strength in the Yen when the “safety trade” is en vogue.
That’s about all our new friend was willing to divulge in terms of predictions. However, he did offer up some advice – don’t be a slave to headlines being manufactured by the powers that be globally and remain flexible at all times – meaning you need to be willing to admit you’re wrong quickly.