2 Sep 2013
Flash: US payrolls loom as crucial report ahead of Fed – UBS
FXstreet.com (Lisbon) - Once a quarter, the Australian dollar faces a week of concentrated event risk – it must run the gauntlet between monthly and quarterly domestic economic reports, an RBA policy decision, China PMIs, and a US payrolls report, notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.
Key quotes
“This time around US payrolls is especially significant given its direct bearing on the timing of FOMC tapering. There is the added complication of an Australian Federal Election on Sep 7 too, although we do not expect any material currency reaction to the outcome.”
So the stakes are high, but so far so good. China's PMI hit a 16-month high over the weekend. That does not fundamentally change our bearish outlook though.
“A weaker Australian dollar is still needed to facilitate domestic economic rebalancing and if it does not weaken naturally of its own accord, the RBA has plenty ammunition left to help make it happen. That message is likely to come through loud and clear in Tuesday's policy statement.”
Key quotes
“This time around US payrolls is especially significant given its direct bearing on the timing of FOMC tapering. There is the added complication of an Australian Federal Election on Sep 7 too, although we do not expect any material currency reaction to the outcome.”
So the stakes are high, but so far so good. China's PMI hit a 16-month high over the weekend. That does not fundamentally change our bearish outlook though.
“A weaker Australian dollar is still needed to facilitate domestic economic rebalancing and if it does not weaken naturally of its own accord, the RBA has plenty ammunition left to help make it happen. That message is likely to come through loud and clear in Tuesday's policy statement.”