8 Jul 2015
China stocks collapse doesn’t signal a sharp downturn in the economy – Wells Fargo
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist at Wells Fargo Securities, comments on the sell-off in Chinese stocks and its impact on investment, consumer spending and GDP growth.
Key Quotes
“The two major stock market indices in China have plummeted more than 30 percent over the past month. Similar-sized declines in the American stock market surely would portend bad omens for the U.S. economy. However, the Chinese and American economies clearly have different structures. Specifically, the Chinese economy is largely bank financed, unlike its American counterpart where equity markets play a more important role in corporate finance, and equities constitute a smaller share of household net worth in China than they do in the United States.”
“Consequently, growth in business fixed investment (BFI) spending in China may slow in coming quarters, but it is unlikely to collapse, based solely on the recent decline in Chinese share prices.”
“Similarly, growth in Chinese consumer spending, although it may slow somewhat in coming quarters, is not likely to weaken significantly due to the swoon in the stock market.”
“Although we look for the overall rate of real GDP growth in China to trend lower in coming quarters from the 7.0 percent year-over-year rate that was registered in Q1 2015, we do not believe that the collapse in Chinese share prices over the past month portends a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy.”
Key Quotes
“The two major stock market indices in China have plummeted more than 30 percent over the past month. Similar-sized declines in the American stock market surely would portend bad omens for the U.S. economy. However, the Chinese and American economies clearly have different structures. Specifically, the Chinese economy is largely bank financed, unlike its American counterpart where equity markets play a more important role in corporate finance, and equities constitute a smaller share of household net worth in China than they do in the United States.”
“Consequently, growth in business fixed investment (BFI) spending in China may slow in coming quarters, but it is unlikely to collapse, based solely on the recent decline in Chinese share prices.”
“Similarly, growth in Chinese consumer spending, although it may slow somewhat in coming quarters, is not likely to weaken significantly due to the swoon in the stock market.”
“Although we look for the overall rate of real GDP growth in China to trend lower in coming quarters from the 7.0 percent year-over-year rate that was registered in Q1 2015, we do not believe that the collapse in Chinese share prices over the past month portends a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy.”