8 Jul 2015
Outlook for AUD/USD and crosses – ANZ
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at ANZ, offer the outlook and expect ranges for AUD/USD and crosses, highlighting the key reasons why the Aussie will remain pressured.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: Further declines in Chinese equity markets drove the AUD to new cycle lows overnight. The FOMC minutes overnight will be watched for signs as to whether the Fed is increasingly cautious on the pace of normalisation, with an update from San Francisco Fed’s John Williams also key. Meanwhile, the continued decline in iron ore prices and the risk of a softer employment number tomorrow should also keep pressure on the AUD.
Expected range: 0.7310 – 0.7560”
“AUD/NZD: This cross has rallied despite the RBA issuing a fairly neutral statement yesterday. This is probably due to conflicting technical pictures for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. While the NZD/USD is running into support, the AUD/USD has just broken support and faces an easier decline on offshore events.
Expected range: 1.1110 – 1.1250”
“AUD/EUR: The failure of the Greek negotiation team to table any new proposals saw EUR/USD under pressure. This was somewhat offset by AUD/USD fears over Chinese equity markets, but risks remain higher.
Expected range: 0.6690 – 0.6890”
“AUD/JPY: The majority of the declines were unwound, but this cross is in a down trend.
Expected range: 89.50 – 92.60”
“AUD/GBP: While industrial production and the June GDP estimate were better than expected, markets noted that manufacturing declines have accelerated. However, the key driver of GBP is its relationship to EUR.
Expected range: 0.4740 – 0.4890”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD: Further declines in Chinese equity markets drove the AUD to new cycle lows overnight. The FOMC minutes overnight will be watched for signs as to whether the Fed is increasingly cautious on the pace of normalisation, with an update from San Francisco Fed’s John Williams also key. Meanwhile, the continued decline in iron ore prices and the risk of a softer employment number tomorrow should also keep pressure on the AUD.
Expected range: 0.7310 – 0.7560”
“AUD/NZD: This cross has rallied despite the RBA issuing a fairly neutral statement yesterday. This is probably due to conflicting technical pictures for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. While the NZD/USD is running into support, the AUD/USD has just broken support and faces an easier decline on offshore events.
Expected range: 1.1110 – 1.1250”
“AUD/EUR: The failure of the Greek negotiation team to table any new proposals saw EUR/USD under pressure. This was somewhat offset by AUD/USD fears over Chinese equity markets, but risks remain higher.
Expected range: 0.6690 – 0.6890”
“AUD/JPY: The majority of the declines were unwound, but this cross is in a down trend.
Expected range: 89.50 – 92.60”
“AUD/GBP: While industrial production and the June GDP estimate were better than expected, markets noted that manufacturing declines have accelerated. However, the key driver of GBP is its relationship to EUR.
Expected range: 0.4740 – 0.4890”