7 May 2015
UK elections: A minority government remains a possibility – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at BNP Paribas, comments on the UK election scenario and further note that a minority Labour government relying on SNP support to pass legislation on a vote-by-vote basis is the single most likely outcome.
Key Quotes
“The latest opinion polls suggest that the Conservative party has a slim lead and, if this lead is repeated on Thursday, it would probably leave the Conservatives with most seats in parliament. However, they would be far short of the 326 seats needed for a formal majority (and the 323 needed for an effective majority once the non-voting Sinn Fein MPs are taken into account).”
“Moreover, the Conservatives’ only feasible partners, the Liberal Democrats, are unlikely to win enough seats to get the Conservatives over the line. Even if the Northern Irish DUP were to be included in any agreement, they might still fall short of a majority.”
“With the Labour Party having ruled out a formal agreement with the Scottish National Party (SNP), neither of the main parties looks likely to be in a position to form a coalition.”
“A minority Labour government relying on SNP support to pass legislation on a vote-by-vote basis is the single most likely outcome. But even a small swing to the Conservatives or Liberals could leave Labour and the SNP short of a majority and reliant on the support of the Liberals in Parliament.”
Key Quotes
“The latest opinion polls suggest that the Conservative party has a slim lead and, if this lead is repeated on Thursday, it would probably leave the Conservatives with most seats in parliament. However, they would be far short of the 326 seats needed for a formal majority (and the 323 needed for an effective majority once the non-voting Sinn Fein MPs are taken into account).”
“Moreover, the Conservatives’ only feasible partners, the Liberal Democrats, are unlikely to win enough seats to get the Conservatives over the line. Even if the Northern Irish DUP were to be included in any agreement, they might still fall short of a majority.”
“With the Labour Party having ruled out a formal agreement with the Scottish National Party (SNP), neither of the main parties looks likely to be in a position to form a coalition.”
“A minority Labour government relying on SNP support to pass legislation on a vote-by-vote basis is the single most likely outcome. But even a small swing to the Conservatives or Liberals could leave Labour and the SNP short of a majority and reliant on the support of the Liberals in Parliament.”