7 May 2015
US NFP expected to show a 275K gain – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at BNP Paribas, note that USD remained under pressure post a disappointing ADP number, and further forecast the nonfarm payrolls to print a 275k figure.
Key Quotes
“The USD remained under pressure Wednesday, losing ground broadly as a weaker than expected ADP report seemingly forced more capitulation on USD longs.”
“The ADP report showed private payrolls growing by just 169k in April, down slightly from the a 175k pace in March. However, our economists note that ADP’s survey has been a fairly poor predictor of official payrolls, getting the direction of payrolls correct just 50% of the time since 2013. They point out the firm reading on the ISM nonmanufacturing survey released Tuesday and confirm they continue to forecast a 275k reading on Friday’s release.”
“Rate markets continue to underprice scope for a Q3 rate hike in the US and could adjust quickly in the direction of our September liftoff forecast if data begins to improve.”
“Ahead Thursday, we expect weekly jobless claims data to once again show claims holding at levels consistent with a very healthy labour market.”
“We remain short EURUSD from 1.12 although the pair is now trading uncomfortably close to our 1.1390 stop.”
Key Quotes
“The USD remained under pressure Wednesday, losing ground broadly as a weaker than expected ADP report seemingly forced more capitulation on USD longs.”
“The ADP report showed private payrolls growing by just 169k in April, down slightly from the a 175k pace in March. However, our economists note that ADP’s survey has been a fairly poor predictor of official payrolls, getting the direction of payrolls correct just 50% of the time since 2013. They point out the firm reading on the ISM nonmanufacturing survey released Tuesday and confirm they continue to forecast a 275k reading on Friday’s release.”
“Rate markets continue to underprice scope for a Q3 rate hike in the US and could adjust quickly in the direction of our September liftoff forecast if data begins to improve.”
“Ahead Thursday, we expect weekly jobless claims data to once again show claims holding at levels consistent with a very healthy labour market.”
“We remain short EURUSD from 1.12 although the pair is now trading uncomfortably close to our 1.1390 stop.”