1 May 2015
USD/CAD seen at 1.30 in 12-month – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Christian Lawrence, Strategist at Rabobank, believes the pair could head towards the 1.30 handle in a 12-month horizon.
Key Quotes
“On April 15 USD/CAD broke through the bottom of the channel in which the pair traded since early March and the currency pair subsequently traded down through 1.21”.
“Although there is room for the pair to drift down to 1.195 in the very short term, our bias is still for USD/CAD to trade up towards the 1.30 handle on a 12-month view and we expect a move back to the channel on a 3-month basis”.
“Going forward, USD/CAD is likely to remain at the mercy of oil prices and we do not expect interest rate differentials to return as a key driver of USD/CAD until we see a strong consensus form as to the likely timing of the first Fed hike (we have been calling for a December move since January of last year but market pricing and surveys reveal divided and fast changing opinions on this matter)”.
Key Quotes
“On April 15 USD/CAD broke through the bottom of the channel in which the pair traded since early March and the currency pair subsequently traded down through 1.21”.
“Although there is room for the pair to drift down to 1.195 in the very short term, our bias is still for USD/CAD to trade up towards the 1.30 handle on a 12-month view and we expect a move back to the channel on a 3-month basis”.
“Going forward, USD/CAD is likely to remain at the mercy of oil prices and we do not expect interest rate differentials to return as a key driver of USD/CAD until we see a strong consensus form as to the likely timing of the first Fed hike (we have been calling for a December move since January of last year but market pricing and surveys reveal divided and fast changing opinions on this matter)”.