30 Apr 2015
NZD/USD medium-term outlook stays bullish – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team forecasts RBNZ to hike interest rates only in middle of 2016, and further maintain a bullish outlook on the pair over the medium-term, targeting 0.7800.
Key Quotes
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at 3.5% for the sixth consecutive policy review, as expected.”
“RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said: “It would be appropriate to lower the official cash rate if demand weakens, and wage and price-setting outcomes settle at levels lower than is consistent with the inflation target.” A sharp slowdown in inflation due to falling oil prices pushed annual CPI down to 0.1% in the first quarter, its lowest in 15 years and pushing further below the RBNZ's inflation target around 2%.”
“The inclusion of factors which may open the door to a possible rate cut in the statement suggested an incremental change in the RBNZ's neutral policy position seen in previous months which forecast a period of rate stability. Markets are pricing in 25 bps of easing in the next 12 months.”
“The RBNZ’s longer term forecasts see inflation pressure picking up gradually, which may require rate rises later next year. In our opinion the next move will be a 25 bps hike in the middle of 2016.”
“The NZD/USD fell sharply following a dovish central bank statement to a day’s low at 0.7576. Our long position hit its raised stop-loss level at 0.7630. However, our medium-term outlook on the NZD/USD is still bullish and we are going to buy at 0.7560.”
“Resistance: 0.7685 (session high Apr 30), 0.7744 (high Apr 29), 7782 (high Jan 20)”
“Support: 0.7576 (session low Apr 30), 0.7544 (low Apr 24), 0.7538 (low Apr 23)”
“NZD/USD: buy at 0.7560, if filled – target 0.7800, stop-loss 0.7450, risk factor **”
Key Quotes
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate at 3.5% for the sixth consecutive policy review, as expected.”
“RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said: “It would be appropriate to lower the official cash rate if demand weakens, and wage and price-setting outcomes settle at levels lower than is consistent with the inflation target.” A sharp slowdown in inflation due to falling oil prices pushed annual CPI down to 0.1% in the first quarter, its lowest in 15 years and pushing further below the RBNZ's inflation target around 2%.”
“The inclusion of factors which may open the door to a possible rate cut in the statement suggested an incremental change in the RBNZ's neutral policy position seen in previous months which forecast a period of rate stability. Markets are pricing in 25 bps of easing in the next 12 months.”
“The RBNZ’s longer term forecasts see inflation pressure picking up gradually, which may require rate rises later next year. In our opinion the next move will be a 25 bps hike in the middle of 2016.”
“The NZD/USD fell sharply following a dovish central bank statement to a day’s low at 0.7576. Our long position hit its raised stop-loss level at 0.7630. However, our medium-term outlook on the NZD/USD is still bullish and we are going to buy at 0.7560.”
“Resistance: 0.7685 (session high Apr 30), 0.7744 (high Apr 29), 7782 (high Jan 20)”
“Support: 0.7576 (session low Apr 30), 0.7544 (low Apr 24), 0.7538 (low Apr 23)”
“NZD/USD: buy at 0.7560, if filled – target 0.7800, stop-loss 0.7450, risk factor **”