30 Apr 2015
US fundamentally strong, growth rebound likely – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Alexandra Estiot, Economist at BNP Paribas, explains that the Q1 weakness for US has continued for several years, and fundamentally US growth looks to rebound, expecting labour market recovery to guide this growth.
Key Quotes
“Activity took a hard hit in the first quarter of 2015, and the growth rate was barely positive (+0.2%, quarterly annualised rate). Temporary factors (weather, strikes) helped slow down activity, which tends to be soft at the beginning of the year.”
“The bad performance in Q1 has to be nuanced. But it should not be shrugged off, as more lasting brakes were at play: the steep appreciation of the dollar and the fall in oil prices.”
“Fundamentals remain positive, and the US economy will undoubtedly keep on growing firmly. This does not mean the rebound will be particularly marked in Q2.”
“The pace of the recovery will depend on households. To that matter, the labour market is crucial.”
“GDP growth markedly slowed in the first quarter of this year. The advance estimate (revisions will be released next month for a final reading in two months) points to a quarterly annualised rate limited to 0.2%, following +2.2% in the final quarter of last year.”
“On a year-on-year basis, growth actually accelerated, from 2.4% in Q4 2014 to 3% in Q1 2015, as last year the US economy already had suffered a soft patch during the first three months of the year. Indeed, the US economy has tended to prove weak in the first three months of the year for several years.”
Key Quotes
“Activity took a hard hit in the first quarter of 2015, and the growth rate was barely positive (+0.2%, quarterly annualised rate). Temporary factors (weather, strikes) helped slow down activity, which tends to be soft at the beginning of the year.”
“The bad performance in Q1 has to be nuanced. But it should not be shrugged off, as more lasting brakes were at play: the steep appreciation of the dollar and the fall in oil prices.”
“Fundamentals remain positive, and the US economy will undoubtedly keep on growing firmly. This does not mean the rebound will be particularly marked in Q2.”
“The pace of the recovery will depend on households. To that matter, the labour market is crucial.”
“GDP growth markedly slowed in the first quarter of this year. The advance estimate (revisions will be released next month for a final reading in two months) points to a quarterly annualised rate limited to 0.2%, following +2.2% in the final quarter of last year.”
“On a year-on-year basis, growth actually accelerated, from 2.4% in Q4 2014 to 3% in Q1 2015, as last year the US economy already had suffered a soft patch during the first three months of the year. Indeed, the US economy has tended to prove weak in the first three months of the year for several years.”