7 Apr 2015
Currencies to hold their ranges in the near-term – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD drivers taking a balanced turn, currencies might remain in their ranges for the near-term, and break in favour on the Dollar over the medium-term, according to Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.
Key Quotes
“Currencies are in ranges as the strong USD drivers take a more balanced turn. In the near‐term, re‐pricing of a more vulnerable U.S. economic profile continues and is likely to be a weight on the USD broadly. However for most currencies the medium term drivers still warn of USD strength.”
“Accordingly, in the near‐term, it is the 23.6% Fibo retracement levels as well as recent highs/lows which could prove an important level of support/resistance; with . We have outlined some of these below:
EURUSD: March 16th low of 1.0458 to Fibo level of 1.1292
GBPUSD: March 18th low of 1.4635 to Fibo level of 1.5238
AUDUSD: April 2nd low of 0.7533 to Fibo level of 0.8020
USDCAD: Fibo level of 1.2312 to March 18th high of 1.2835
USDJPY: Fibo level of 117.02 to March 10 high of 122.03
DXY USD index: Fibo level of 95.32 to March 13th high of 100.39”
“In the near term we expect the above ranges to hold as a catalyst strong enough fails to materialize. In the medium‐term we would expect these ranges to be broken in favour of a stronger USD.”
Key Quotes
“Currencies are in ranges as the strong USD drivers take a more balanced turn. In the near‐term, re‐pricing of a more vulnerable U.S. economic profile continues and is likely to be a weight on the USD broadly. However for most currencies the medium term drivers still warn of USD strength.”
“Accordingly, in the near‐term, it is the 23.6% Fibo retracement levels as well as recent highs/lows which could prove an important level of support/resistance; with . We have outlined some of these below:
EURUSD: March 16th low of 1.0458 to Fibo level of 1.1292
GBPUSD: March 18th low of 1.4635 to Fibo level of 1.5238
AUDUSD: April 2nd low of 0.7533 to Fibo level of 0.8020
USDCAD: Fibo level of 1.2312 to March 18th high of 1.2835
USDJPY: Fibo level of 117.02 to March 10 high of 122.03
DXY USD index: Fibo level of 95.32 to March 13th high of 100.39”
“In the near term we expect the above ranges to hold as a catalyst strong enough fails to materialize. In the medium‐term we would expect these ranges to be broken in favour of a stronger USD.”