16 Feb 2015
UK election polling in a snapshot - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS explained that the polling data trends continue to show a narrow Labour lead over the Conservatives in terms of % shares of the vote (averaging 1.9% pts over the past 10 polls).
Key Quotes:
"The UK’s skewed electoral boundaries mean that, on the standard assumption of a uniform national swing, these voting shares would translate into a small Labour Parliamentary majority of 12 seats. By contrast, trends in betting markets show a clear decline in the probability of Labour being in office (down to under 30% from 40% a month ago)."
"Although the election outcome remains too close to call with any confidence, the growing divergence between the more dynamic betting markets and the more static polling data is striking."
"Betting markets continue to attach a relative high probability, c.80%, to a coalition or minority government emerging from the 7 May 2015 election."
Key Quotes:
"The UK’s skewed electoral boundaries mean that, on the standard assumption of a uniform national swing, these voting shares would translate into a small Labour Parliamentary majority of 12 seats. By contrast, trends in betting markets show a clear decline in the probability of Labour being in office (down to under 30% from 40% a month ago)."
"Although the election outcome remains too close to call with any confidence, the growing divergence between the more dynamic betting markets and the more static polling data is striking."
"Betting markets continue to attach a relative high probability, c.80%, to a coalition or minority government emerging from the 7 May 2015 election."