13 Feb 2015
Key events in the week ahead in Eurozone – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team previews the key events – Eurogroup meeting, ECB Minutes and Flash PMIs, in the week ahead in the Eurozone.
Key Quotes
“Eurogroup/Ecofin Meeting (16-17 Feb): The negotiations continue and as we have argued, this will continue to be a game of chicken because that is only reason to guarantee a need to compromise.”
“It’s still more likely we have to wait until late Monday for anything official but details could start to leak out over the weekend.”
“ECB Minutes (Thu 19 Feb): Although the ECB is calling them ‘accounts’ not ‘minutes’ it is the first issue of a more detailed account of the debate within the Governing Council which led to the launch of QE so markets will certainly be interested in the novelty effect, as well as the first sense of the breakdown of the vote, though it’s doubtful after announcing a program to last 18 months that anything here will have significant, near-term implications.“
“Flash PMIs (Fri 20 Feb): Germany’s manufacturing PMI has come in at or below expectations every month since Oct 2013, and we don’t expect to see that trend change now. We look for the PMI to slip from 50.9 to 50.6 in Feb (mkt 51.4), as it continues to bounce around that barely-positive level.”
“The French PMIs have not been quite so one directional, and we look for the services PMI to push 0.4pts higher to 49.8 (mkt 49.9).“
Key Quotes
“Eurogroup/Ecofin Meeting (16-17 Feb): The negotiations continue and as we have argued, this will continue to be a game of chicken because that is only reason to guarantee a need to compromise.”
“It’s still more likely we have to wait until late Monday for anything official but details could start to leak out over the weekend.”
“ECB Minutes (Thu 19 Feb): Although the ECB is calling them ‘accounts’ not ‘minutes’ it is the first issue of a more detailed account of the debate within the Governing Council which led to the launch of QE so markets will certainly be interested in the novelty effect, as well as the first sense of the breakdown of the vote, though it’s doubtful after announcing a program to last 18 months that anything here will have significant, near-term implications.“
“Flash PMIs (Fri 20 Feb): Germany’s manufacturing PMI has come in at or below expectations every month since Oct 2013, and we don’t expect to see that trend change now. We look for the PMI to slip from 50.9 to 50.6 in Feb (mkt 51.4), as it continues to bounce around that barely-positive level.”
“The French PMIs have not been quite so one directional, and we look for the services PMI to push 0.4pts higher to 49.8 (mkt 49.9).“