19 Dec 2014
UK data preview - Q3 GDP upward revision would not negate 2015 moderation – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker of RBS shares the forecast for the key UK data for the week beginning 22nd and 29th December, 2014, anticipating the Q3 GDP to climb to 0.8% on the back of an expected stronger construction output.
Key Quotes
“Stronger construction output data are expected to be (just about) sufficient to see Q3 GDP growth nudged up to 0.8% from 0.7%. This would not invalidate expectations of slower growth in 2015, as fiscal tightening resumes, weaker external demand restrains export growth and political risk prompts some capex to be postponed.”
“The current account deficit will remain bloated at almost 5½% of GDP in Q3 – another indication of how the country continues to live beyond its means and serving to emphasise the structural imbalances facing sterling.”
“Money and credit data are expected to remain rather muted, with continued evidence of cooling housing market activity.”
Key Quotes
“Stronger construction output data are expected to be (just about) sufficient to see Q3 GDP growth nudged up to 0.8% from 0.7%. This would not invalidate expectations of slower growth in 2015, as fiscal tightening resumes, weaker external demand restrains export growth and political risk prompts some capex to be postponed.”
“The current account deficit will remain bloated at almost 5½% of GDP in Q3 – another indication of how the country continues to live beyond its means and serving to emphasise the structural imbalances facing sterling.”
“Money and credit data are expected to remain rather muted, with continued evidence of cooling housing market activity.”