17 Dec 2014
Key events ahead in volatile markets – Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation ABN noted the up and coming key events.
Key Quotes:
"Australia’s calendar is quiet for the rest of the week though we see the Nov leading index today".
"Singapore releases Nov exports data while the Bank of Thailand should keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.0%".
"The minutes from the Bank of England MPC’s Dec meeting are due. Nov saw the two dissenting hawks keep the vote at 7-2 despite the dovish Inflation Report so this split could persist".
"In the UK we will also see Oct jobs growth, which should pick up slightly and a likely fall in the unemployment rate below 6.0% for the first time since 2008.
The first round of Greek parliament’s vote on a new president is due today".
"The Eurozone releases its final estimate of Nov CPI (f/c 0.3% y/y) while the US CPI is also due. The headline rate should be weighed by the slide in gasoline prices, with consensus -0.1% m/m, 1.4% y/y. The ex-food & energy measure is seen 0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y. The US Q3 BoP is also due, ahead of the FOMC statement".
"With QE ‘tapering’ having been completed at the previous meeting late October, the FOMC is universally expected to keep policy on hold at the meeting which concludes late NY trade Wed".
"This leaves market attention on the wording of the statement, the updated forecasts and Chair Yellen’s quarterly press conference. Public comments indicate officials are divided over whether to retain the long-standing line that the federal funds rate is likely to be kept at 0-0.25% for a “considerable time” after the end of QE. If it is removed, the new phrasing is unlikely to stoke expectations of an early rate hike".
"While job creation has surprised to the strong side, wages growth is showing only the faintest glimmer of improvement, while of course the accelerated slide in oil prices since the last meeting adds to the prospect of inflation undershooting the 2% target for even longer".
Key Quotes:
"Australia’s calendar is quiet for the rest of the week though we see the Nov leading index today".
"Singapore releases Nov exports data while the Bank of Thailand should keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.0%".
"The minutes from the Bank of England MPC’s Dec meeting are due. Nov saw the two dissenting hawks keep the vote at 7-2 despite the dovish Inflation Report so this split could persist".
"In the UK we will also see Oct jobs growth, which should pick up slightly and a likely fall in the unemployment rate below 6.0% for the first time since 2008.
The first round of Greek parliament’s vote on a new president is due today".
"The Eurozone releases its final estimate of Nov CPI (f/c 0.3% y/y) while the US CPI is also due. The headline rate should be weighed by the slide in gasoline prices, with consensus -0.1% m/m, 1.4% y/y. The ex-food & energy measure is seen 0.1% m/m, 1.8% y/y. The US Q3 BoP is also due, ahead of the FOMC statement".
"With QE ‘tapering’ having been completed at the previous meeting late October, the FOMC is universally expected to keep policy on hold at the meeting which concludes late NY trade Wed".
"This leaves market attention on the wording of the statement, the updated forecasts and Chair Yellen’s quarterly press conference. Public comments indicate officials are divided over whether to retain the long-standing line that the federal funds rate is likely to be kept at 0-0.25% for a “considerable time” after the end of QE. If it is removed, the new phrasing is unlikely to stoke expectations of an early rate hike".
"While job creation has surprised to the strong side, wages growth is showing only the faintest glimmer of improvement, while of course the accelerated slide in oil prices since the last meeting adds to the prospect of inflation undershooting the 2% target for even longer".