4 Dec 2014
EUR/AUD keeps 1.46 post Aus retail sales
FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/AUD is barely changed from its NY close, with the positive AUD spike post Aus retail sales/trade balance faded now.
While the trade balance and retail sales in Australia came better-than-expected, allowing a flash spike in AUD/USD worth over 20/25 pips, the stacked of offers circa 0.8425/30 (3rd touch descending trendline), coupled with sizeable bids protecting 1.23 in EUR/USD, led EUR/AUD to quickly correct the early decline, now back at 1.4630, with support at 1.46/4610 still proving formidable for the interest of scalpers.
Despite near term bias in EUR/AUD remains bullish, the next direction in the pair will be ECB dependable, with the market now in full motion pricing in a dovish outcome from the ECB today, as the sharp decline in the Euro over the past 24h reflects. As per the AUD, broad-based negative sentiment remains firmly in place, with the latest topside failure on upbeat Aus retail sales providing further clues as to what direction (down) the market aims to send the Aussie. Note, Wed's Q3 GDP miss in Australia has resulted in the market pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the RBA over the next 12 months, as the OIS market indicates.
While the trade balance and retail sales in Australia came better-than-expected, allowing a flash spike in AUD/USD worth over 20/25 pips, the stacked of offers circa 0.8425/30 (3rd touch descending trendline), coupled with sizeable bids protecting 1.23 in EUR/USD, led EUR/AUD to quickly correct the early decline, now back at 1.4630, with support at 1.46/4610 still proving formidable for the interest of scalpers.
Despite near term bias in EUR/AUD remains bullish, the next direction in the pair will be ECB dependable, with the market now in full motion pricing in a dovish outcome from the ECB today, as the sharp decline in the Euro over the past 24h reflects. As per the AUD, broad-based negative sentiment remains firmly in place, with the latest topside failure on upbeat Aus retail sales providing further clues as to what direction (down) the market aims to send the Aussie. Note, Wed's Q3 GDP miss in Australia has resulted in the market pricing in a 25bp rate cut by the RBA over the next 12 months, as the OIS market indicates.