DXY: All eyes on US Core PCE – OCBC

The Dollar Index (DXY) eased off recent highs, alongside the dip in UST yields, FX strategist at OCBC Christopher Wong notes.

US Core PCE has everyone’s attention

“Third reading of 1Q GDP report reinforced the view of growing strains on US consumer. Personal consumption was revised down to 1.5% (vs. 2% prior). Data focus today on PCE core (8:30pm SGT). Softer core CPI, PPI readings in May should see core PCE print lower.”

“A weaker than expected print should raise hopes for Fed rate cut. This should also tamper US Dollar (USD) gains, but hotter print may continue to fuel USD momentum.”

“DXY was last at 105.83. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI was flat. Resistance at 106.20. Support at 105.20 (21, 50 DMAs), 104.80 (61.8% fibo retracement of Oct high to 2024 low). Quarter-end and month-end flows may distort price action today.”