India: Q3 GDP surprised to the upside – UOB

UOB Group’s Head of Research Suan Teck Kin, CFA, and Associate Economist Jester Koh comment on the recent publication of Q3 GDP readings in India.

Key Takeaways

India’s real GDP expanded by 7.6% y/y in 2QFY23-24 (Jul-Sep quarter), stronger than Bloomberg and UOB’s expectations for a 6.8% y/y increase but a tad lower than 1QFY23-24’s (Apr-Jun quarter) reading of 7.8% y/y.  

Outlook – We expect 3Q (Oct-Dec) GDP to be driven by strong year-end festival demand and ongoing public infrastructure spending. Private sector investments could pick up after the 18th Lok Sabha (lower house) elections (Apr-May 2024) as election uncertainty abates alongside continued progress of public infrastructure projects with the newly formed cabinet. We upgrade our FY23-24 GDP forecast to 6.9% (prev: 6.5%) and expect growth to moderate to 6.4% in FY24-25, as tight financial conditions gradually weigh on economic activity.