Gold Price Forecast: Easing geopolitical tensions can quickly reverse the sharp XAU/USD rise – OCBC

Safe-haven flows dominate the action early Thursday. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze market’s outlook. 

USD may stay supported in the near term

While geopolitics uncertainty can keep the bid for safe-haven proxies, we need to highlight that geopolitical developments can be fluid. As much as risk-off can fuel Gold upside, easing tensions can quickly reverse the sharp rise as well. Not forgetting real rates are still high. That said, in absence of any signs of de-escalation, USD may stay supported in the near term.

Looking out, while the chance for another Fed hike remains, we believe the Fed is done for current cycle. Restrictive rates and signs of inflation and expectations coming off should justify an extended hold and a potential pivot eventually. When that happens, USD can ease lower. This week, the focus is on 3Q GDP (today) and Core PCE data (Fri). Softer print, in particular PCE core can weigh on USD.