NOK to struggle in an environment of weakening growth, tight monetary conditions and strong USD – Danske Bank

EUR/NOK breached the 11.80 mark despite commodity prices rising over the past month, highlighting the importance of the global backdrop. Economists at Danske bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

No near-term turnaround in store for NOK

We still think NOK first and foremost should be treated as a high beta derivative of the global investment environment and in an environment of weakening growth, tight global monetary conditions and a strong USD, the NOK very rarely performs. 

Additionally, the recent rise in long-end yields significantly increases the risk of a hard landing for the global economy. In that light, we also lift the long end of the forecast profile, which entails that we no longer embed a stronger NOK in our 12M forecast horizon. We still think NOK is fundamentally undervalued but we do not see the trigger for a turnaround in the next 12M.

Forecast: 11.90 (1M), 12.10 (3M), 12.10 (6M), 12.00 (12M)