EUR/SEK seen moving back to 11.40 on a three-month view – Rabobank

There are a couple of factors that suggest a greater chance of support for the SEK over the coming weeks, in the view of economists at Rabobank.

Failure to break above 12.00 could help to restore some confidence in the SEK

In the first week of foreign currency sales, the Riksbank sold USD390 mln, a little less than market estimates. No EUR was sold. This process is scheduled to continue for 4 to 6 months. 

Given the risk that SEK purchases will coincide with further rate hikes from the Riksbank, the SEK should find some support. 

The September high, which was within a whisker of EUR/SEK 12.00 should offer a decent level of resistance. Any failure of the currency pair to break above this level in the coming months could help restore some confidence in the SEK. 

We see risk of a move back to EUR/SEK 11.40 on a three-month view.