EUR/HUF seen at 375 at year-end and at 365 in the middle of 2024 – ING

Economists at ING analyze EUR/HUF outlook after the National Bank of Hungary cut its base rate by 75 bps.

Forint vulnerable in the coming weeks

The market is already repricing expectations towards larger rate cuts in the future, which is likely to continue in the days ahead. This should further undermine the Forint and make it vulnerable in the coming weeks. In addition, the US Dollar is again heading towards stronger levels, which can only support a move into the 384-386 EUR/HUF range in the short term. 

In the medium and long term, probably not much has changed after the meeting, and the Forint should continue to strengthen depending on the success of the NBH delivering rate cuts and the EU money story. 

We expect 375 EUR/HUF at year-end and 365 EUR/HUF in the middle of next year, supported by the highest positive real rate and carry in the region.